Krashen presentation, January 17, 2014-01-14

The ever-increasing power of reading and libraries

The world-wide threat of the common core state standards (CC$$)

The ever-increasing power of reading and libraries

The latest in library studies:

Predictors of NAEP grade 4, 1992, 42 states

	beta	t	P
Poverty	-0.45	-5.07	0
Print Access	1.12	4.3	0

r2 = .72     From: McQuillan, 1998

Replication: Predictors of NAEP grade 4, 2007, 51 states

	B	beta	t	p
Poverty	-0.919	0.72	7.42	0
Access	0.658	0.53	1.62	0.055
r2 = .6468

r2 = .65  adjusted r2 = .63   Fluent English proficient students only Krashen, Lee & McQuillan, 2012

PIRLS: 40th graders in 40 countries, in their own language

Krashen, Lee and McQuillan (2012): the simple analysis

Multiple Regression Analysis: predictors of achievement PIRLS 2006 reading test

predictor	Beta	P
SES	0.41	0.005
independent reading	0.16	0.143
library: 500 books	0.35	0.005
instruction	-0.19	0.085

r2 = .61

Table 2: Replication:  PIRLS 2011

Predictor	Beta	P
SES	0.518	0.01
library: 5000 books	0.197	0.08
class libr	0.08	0.28
parent read	0.065	0.31
early lit	-0.261	0.04
Instruction	-0.016	0.5

r2 = .62

EARLY LIT: Parents' judgment of child's ability to do these tasks:

1.Recognize most of the letters of the alphabet.

2. Read some words.

3. Read sentences.

4. Write letters of the alphabet.

5. Write some words.

Summary: SES and Library the consistent winners.

Instruction: negative or nothing

Parental reading, class library correlated with PIRLS but relationship disappears;  a spurious correlation, the result of SES.

The big surprise: EARLY Lit negatively correlates with reading score five years later!

-       consistent with intensive systematic approach to phonics: helps only on tests in which children pronouce words presented to them in a list.

Sample countries:  Average (mean) scores on the PIRLS 2011 for Hong Kong and Taiwan.

	mean	sd	Hong Kong	Taiwan
score	507.6	55.4	571	553
HDI	0.8237	0.0867	0.898	0.882
library 5000 books	30.34	26.7	82	90
class libr	25.2	20.3	75	73
parent read	31.11	11.15	14	17
earlylit	26.3	11.7	41	30
instruction	143.34	42.05	102	65

The INDIA Study

Pratheeba & Krashen, 2013, Perceptual and Motor Skills, 117, 2, 1-7

Engineering students in India, demanding vocabulary test, survey of reading habits

Variable	M	SD	Correlation	p (one-tail)
Vocabulary	30.04	7.39
Reading Questionnaire (total)	62.8	7.31	.78	<.001
Book Reading (4 items)	13.00	3.34	.36	.04
Computer Reading (4 items)	15.84	2.25	.20	.22

Book reading: historical novels, political novels, science fiction, biographies and autobiographies

Ccomputer reading: used the internet to read about current affairs, for academic purposes, pleasure, online journals

Only one item of the four computer reading items, pleasure reading on the internet, correlated significantly with vocabulary test results.

Correlation between book reading and computer reading: r = .19

The UK Study: Sullivan and Brown

Predictors of scores on vocabulary test given at age 16

Variable	beta	p-value
SES: higher job status	-0.012	0.613
Parent has degree	0.255	0
Higher income family	0.02	0.542
Read to everyday at age 5	0.115	0.01
Reads books often at age 10	0.313	0
Visits library often at age 10	0.009	0.791
Reads newspapers more than once/week at age 16	0.183	0
Reads books more than once/week at age 16	0.353	0
Reading proficiency at age five	0.039	0
Reading proficiency at age 10	0.117	0

Case Histories: The Beniko Mason series

Gains on TOEIC

	Mr. Tanaka	Mr. Nakano	Mrs. Fujita
Age	42	75	66
Duration	12 months	5 months	9 weeks
Pages read	5456	2624	1739
Gain	475-655 = 180	495-580 = 85	680-740 = 60
Points/hr	.56	.78	.35
Points/page	0.03	0.03	0.03
Hours CI	247	109	72.5
Hours study	70 (vocabulary)	"a few" (TOEIC prep)	94.5 (TOEIC prep)

 

Mason, B. (2011). Impressive gains on the TOEIC after one year of comprehensible input, with no output or grammar study. The International Journal of Foreign Language Teaching, 7(1).  http://www.tprstories.com/images/ijflt/IJFLTNovember2011.pdf

Mason, B. (2013). Substantial gains in listening and reading ability in English as a second language from voluntary listening and reading in a 75 year old student. The International Journal of Foreign Language Teaching, 8(1), 25-27.

Mason, B. (in press). The case of Mr. Kashihara: Another case of substantial gains in reading and listening without output or grammar study, Shitennoji University (IBU) Journal.

FVR = the bridge between conversational and "academic" language – the missing link: In all cases, reading material is comprehensible, compelling, reading is narrow and self-selected.

The role of sheltered subject matter teaching - As a means of encouraging the middle stage, the route to self-selected academic reading

Constrained self-selected reading = students select reading within limits as prescribed by the teacher. 

Inspired by The Book Whisperer: Donalyn Miller – originally for middle school literature; in her classes students are required to read the following types of books.

40 Book Requirement (Miller, 2009)

Realistic Fiction 5

Historical Fiction 4

Fantasy 3

Science Fiction 2

Biography/ Autobiography/ Memoir 2

Nonfiction 5

Poetry 4

Traditional Literature 3

Graphic Novels            1

Free Choice      11

For ESL students: possible categories: comic book/graphic novel, magazines (gossip, general interest, trade/hobby), newspaper (serious, gossip), girl oriented fiction, boy oriented fiction, all discussed as literature as it reflects on the culture.

History, the Trojan War. students are free to choose one (or two or three, depending on the depth involved) among the following: One or more historial novels (eg Helen of Troy), a graphic novel covering the history of the war, one or more of movies made about the Trojan war (the most current is Troy).

The world-wide threat of the common core state standards (CC$$)

The US Common Core State Standards (CC$$)

The tests

1.     Huge increase in number of tests

2.     Delivered online = boondoggle (new computers, expanded infrastructure, constant updating

The Standardss

1.     Promote skill-building approach: detailed discrete skills as learning targets: phonemic awareness, phonics, vocabulary with interim testing: anything not included in the standards should not be taught

2.     Self-selected reading: only in combination with explicit instruction, at or above current "reading level" only

WORLD-WIDE testing: Learning Metrics Task Force: http://www.brookings.edu/about/centers/universal-education/learning-metrics-task-force

"to improve learning we must be able to measure and monitor its outcomes" (p. 30).

Seven areas to be tested: physical well-being (eg nutrition, exercise), social & emotional (eg conflict resolution, civic values, mental health), culture and the arts (eg awareness and respect for diversity, creative arts), learning approaches and cognition (reasoning and problem-solving, critical thinking), numeracy and mathematics, science and technology, and: literacy and communication

1 Combined test to be given at the end of primary school; reading also at end of grade three (the grade three fallacy)

2 "Ready to learn" testing on entry to primary school:"five of the seven domains: physical well-being, social and emotional, literacy and communication, learning approaches and cognition, and numeracy and mathematics."

3 p.26: Citizen of the World: Measuring among youth the demonstration of values and skills necessary for success in their communities, countries and the world. Beyond reading and numeracy …

Literacy and communication testing

•    Early childhood level: Receptive language, Expressive language, Vocabulary, Print

•    Awareness

•    Primary: Oral fluency, oral comprehension, reading fluency, reading comprehension, receptive vocabulary, written expression/composition

•    Post-primary: Speaking and listening, writing and reading

Source:

Access to books and time to read versus the common core state standards and tests (English Journal 103.2 (2013) pp. 21-29.) Stephen Krashen      Posted at http://sdkrashen.com/articles.php?cat=4