Thursday, January 16, 2014

Krashen presentation, January 17, 2014-01-14


The ever-increasing power of reading and libraries
The world-wide threat of the common core state standards (CC$$)


The ever-increasing power of reading and libraries
The latest in library studies:
Predictors of NAEP grade 4, 1992, 42 states

beta
t
P
Poverty
-0.45
-5.07
0
Print Access
1.12
4.3
0
r2 = .72     From: McQuillan, 1998
Replication: Predictors of NAEP grade 4, 2007, 51 states

B
beta
t
p
Poverty
-0.919
0.72
7.42
0
Access
0.658
0.53
1.62
0.055
r2 = .6468




r2 = .65  adjusted r2 = .63   Fluent English proficient students only Krashen, Lee & McQuillan, 2012
PIRLS: 40th graders in 40 countries, in their own language
Krashen, Lee and McQuillan (2012): the simple analysis
Multiple Regression Analysis: predictors of achievement PIRLS 2006 reading test
predictor
Beta
P
SES
0.41
0.005
independent reading
0.16
0.143
library: 500 books
0.35
0.005
instruction
-0.19
0.085
r2 = .61
Table 2: Replication:  PIRLS 2011
Predictor
Beta
P
SES
0.518
0.01
library: 5000 books
0.197
0.08
class libr
0.08
0.28
parent read
0.065
0.31
early lit
-0.261
0.04
Instruction
-0.016
0.5
r2 = .62
EARLY LIT: Parents' judgment of child's ability to do these tasks:
1.Recognize most of the letters of the alphabet.
2. Read some words.
3. Read sentences.
4. Write letters of the alphabet.
5. Write some words.

Summary: SES and Library the consistent winners.
Instruction: negative or nothing
Parental reading, class library correlated with PIRLS but relationship disappears;  a spurious correlation, the result of SES.
The big surprise: EARLY Lit negatively correlates with reading score five years later!
-       consistent with intensive systematic approach to phonics: helps only on tests in which children pronouce words presented to them in a list.

Sample countries:  Average (mean) scores on the PIRLS 2011 for Hong Kong and Taiwan.

mean
sd
Hong Kong
Taiwan
score
507.6
55.4
571
553
HDI
0.8237
0.0867
0.898
0.882
library 5000 books
30.34
26.7
82
90
class libr
25.2
20.3
         75
73
parent read
31.11
11.15
14
17
earlylit
26.3
11.7
41
30
instruction
143.34
42.05
102
 65


The INDIA Study
Pratheeba & Krashen, 2013, Perceptual and Motor Skills, 117, 2, 1-7
Engineering students in India, demanding vocabulary test, survey of reading habits
Variable
M
SD
Correlation
p (one-tail)
Vocabulary
30.04
7.39


Reading Questionnaire (total)
62.8
7.31
.78
<.001
Book Reading (4 items)
13.00
3.34
.36
.04
Computer Reading (4 items)
15.84
2.25
.20
.22
Book reading: historical novels, political novels, science fiction, biographies and autobiographies
Ccomputer reading: used the internet to read about current affairs, for academic purposes, pleasure, online journals
Only one item of the four computer reading items, pleasure reading on the internet, correlated significantly with vocabulary test results.
Correlation between book reading and computer reading: r = .19

The UK Study: Sullivan and Brown
Predictors of scores on vocabulary test given at age 16
Variable
beta
p-value
SES: higher job status
-0.012
0.613
Parent has degree
0.255
0
Higher income family
0.02
0.542
Read to everyday at age 5
0.115
0.01
Reads books often at age 10
0.313
0
Visits library often at age 10
0.009
0.791
Reads newspapers more than once/week at age 16
0.183
0
Reads books more than once/week at age 16
0.353
0
Reading proficiency at age five
0.039
0
Reading proficiency at age 10
0.117
0


Case Histories: The Beniko Mason series
Gains on TOEIC

Mr. Tanaka
Mr. Nakano
Mrs. Fujita
Age
42
75
66
Duration
12 months
5 months
9 weeks
Pages read
5456
2624
1739
Gain
475-655 = 180
495-580 = 85
680-740 = 60
Points/hr
.56
                       .78
.35
Points/page
0.03
0.03
0.03
Hours CI

247
109

72.5

Hours study

70 (vocabulary)

"a few" (TOEIC prep)
94.5 (TOEIC prep)

 
Mason, B. (2011). Impressive gains on the TOEIC after one year of comprehensible input, with no output or grammar study. The International Journal of Foreign Language Teaching, 7(1).  http://www.tprstories.com/images/ijflt/IJFLTNovember2011.pdf
Mason, B. (2013). Substantial gains in listening and reading ability in English as a second language from voluntary listening and reading in a 75 year old student. The International Journal of Foreign Language Teaching, 8(1), 25-27.
Mason, B. (in press). The case of Mr. Kashihara: Another case of substantial gains in reading and listening without output or grammar study, Shitennoji University (IBU) Journal.

FVR = the bridge between conversational and "academic" language – the missing link: In all cases, reading material is comprehensible, compelling, reading is narrow and self-selected.

The role of sheltered subject matter teaching - As a means of encouraging the middle stage, the route to self-selected academic reading

Constrained self-selected reading = students select reading within limits as prescribed by the teacher. 
Inspired by The Book Whisperer: Donalyn Miller – originally for middle school literature; in her classes students are required to read the following types of books.

40 Book Requirement (Miller, 2009)
Realistic Fiction 5
Historical Fiction 4
Fantasy 3
Science Fiction 2
Biography/ Autobiography/ Memoir 2
Nonfiction 5
Poetry 4
Traditional Literature 3
Graphic Novels            1
Free Choice      11

For ESL students: possible categories: comic book/graphic novel, magazines (gossip, general interest, trade/hobby), newspaper (serious, gossip), girl oriented fiction, boy oriented fiction, all discussed as literature as it reflects on the culture.
History, the Trojan War. students are free to choose one (or two or three, depending on the depth involved) among the following: One or more historial novels (eg Helen of Troy), a graphic novel covering the history of the war, one or more of movies made about the Trojan war (the most current is Troy).

The world-wide threat of the common core state standards (CC$$)

The US Common Core State Standards (CC$$)
The tests
1.     Huge increase in number of tests
2.     Delivered online = boondoggle (new computers, expanded infrastructure, constant updating
The Standardss
1.     Promote skill-building approach: detailed discrete skills as learning targets: phonemic awareness, phonics, vocabulary with interim testing: anything not included in the standards should not be taught
2.     Self-selected reading: only in combination with explicit instruction, at or above current "reading level" only

"to improve learning we must be able to measure and monitor its outcomes" (p. 30).
Seven areas to be tested: physical well-being (eg nutrition, exercise), social & emotional (eg conflict resolution, civic values, mental health), culture and the arts (eg awareness and respect for diversity, creative arts), learning approaches and cognition (reasoning and problem-solving, critical thinking), numeracy and mathematics, science and technology, and: literacy and communication

1 Combined test to be given at the end of primary school; reading also at end of grade three (the grade three fallacy)
2 "Ready to learn" testing on entry to primary school:"five of the seven domains: physical well-being, social and emotional, literacy and communication, learning approaches and cognition, and numeracy and mathematics."
3 p.26: Citizen of the World: Measuring among youth the demonstration of values and skills necessary for success in their communities, countries and the world. Beyond reading and numeracy …

Literacy and communication testing
•    Early childhood level: Receptive language, Expressive language, Vocabulary, Print
•    Awareness
•    Primary: Oral fluency, oral comprehension, reading fluency, reading comprehension, receptive vocabulary, written expression/composition
•    Post-primary: Speaking and listening, writing and reading

Source:



Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Comments on "Arne Duncan: School Expectations Are Too Low in the United States"


From US NEWS and WORLD REPORT, Jan 14, 2014

My comments posted on:http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/01/14/arne-duncan-school expectations-are-too-low-in-the-united-states


ARE TEACHERS STUPID?

"... teachers in America often come from the bottom of the academic barrel .... Duncan said ..."

There is no evidence this is true - Please see: "Are teachers stupid?"  By Jeff McQuillan: http://xmca.ucsd.edu/yarns/3792?keywords=

THE NO EXCUSES ARGUMENT, AGAIN

"(Kati) Haycock gave examples of schools across the country – such as Halle Hewetson Elementary in Las Vegas, George Hall Elementary in Mobile, Ala., and Elmont Memorial Junior-Senior High School in Elmont, N.Y. – with high numbers of minority and low-income students and histories of poor performance that were able to turn around due to changes in leadership, teachers, staff training and parent involvement.Now, students in those schools are outperforming students throughout the state."

This is the "no excuses argument." It has been refuted again and again by studies and observations showing that these miracle schools are extremely rare and sometimes bogus.
Diane Ravitch noted in the NY Times (June 1, 2011) that when schools seem to have overcome poverty and have achieved "stunning results," it is usually "the result of statistical legerdemain," and that "the only miracle at these schools was a triumph of public relations." (Waiting for a School Miracle, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/01/opinion/01ravitch.html).
Gerald Bracey regularly reported cases like this years ago, and I contributed an analysis as well. We both concluded that there were very very few cases in which schools in high-poverty areas achieved high scores on tests.
Bracey, G. 2007. It's being done. Oh really? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gerald-bracey/its-being-done- oh-really_b_63067.html
Krashen, S. 2002. Don’t trust Ed Trust. Substance 27 (6): 3. (http://sdkrashen.com/index.php?cat=7)
INTERNATIONAL TEST SCORES

"While other countries have made strides in student performance on international tests in reading, math and science, American students have stagnated, and in some cases regressed, while achievement gaps in the country remain "staggeringly large," Duncan said …"

When researchers control for poverty, the US ranks near the top of the world on international tests: (Carnoy, M and Rothstein, R. 2013, What Do International Tests Really Show Us about U.S. Student Performance. Washington DC: Economic Policy Institute. 2012. http://www.epi.org/).

RIGOROUS STANDARDS ARE GOOD FOR POOR AND MINORITY STUDENTS?

"Not only does the quality of the teachers matter for low income and minority students to improve academically, said Charles Payne of the University of Chicago. Students from those backgrounds also benefit more from more rigorous standards, but are the least likely to gain access to them – and it's up to parents to work with schools to push for those higher expectations, he said."

I know of no study that shows that ANY group of students benefits more from rigorous standards.  Please see:   
Nichols, Sharon L., Gene V. Glass, and David C. Berliner. 2006. “High-Stakes Testing and Student Achievement: Does Accountability Pressure Increase Student Learning?” Education Policy Archives 14 (1). <http://epaa.asu.edu/ojs/article/view/72/198
Tienken, Christopher H. 2011. “Common Core State Standards: An Example of Data-Less Decision Making.” Journal of Scholarship & Practice  7 (4): 3–18. <www.aasa.org/uploadedFiles/Publications/Newsletters/JSP_Winter2011.FINAL.pdf>